Application of Sarima Models in Modelling and Forecasting Monthly Rainfall in Nigeria
نویسندگان
چکیده
Application of SARIMA model in modelling and forecasting monthly rainfall Nigeria was considered this study. The study utilizes the Nigerian data between 1980-2015 obtained from World Bank Climate Portal. Box-Jenkin’s methodology adopted. (2,0,1) (2,1,1) [12] best among others that fit (1980-2015) with maximum p-value Box-Pierce Residuals Test. forecasts Nigeria’s 2018 through 2042. It discovered month April is period onset November retreat. Based on findings, will experience approximately equal amount to 2021 a slight increase 2022 about 1137.078 (mm). There be decline at 2023 1061 Rainfall values raise again 1142.756 (mm) 2024 continue fluctuate decrease variation 2042, then remain steady 2046 1110.0 Government should provide more mechanized drier season farming methods ease outage future may caused due natural (or unpredictable) variation.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['2582-0230']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.9734/ajpas/2021/v13i330310